Key Points

• Nate Rethorn leads Marathon Petroleum’s Economics team, delivering short‑ and long‑term forecasts that shape company strategy and support decision‑making. 
• His leadership emphasizes humility, transparency and collaboration, fostering open communication and clear, data‑driven insights across the organization.
• Rethorn is a trusted partner to Investor Relations, helping anticipate challenging market questions and translating complex macro trends into clear, actionable guidance for executives.

---

Marathon Petroleum stands as a leader in the energy industry, known for its resilience, innovation and forward-thinking approach to global markets. At the heart of this success is a commitment to data-driven decision making and strategic forecasting, an area where Nate Rethorn, Chief Economist, plays a pivotal role.

Guiding Marathon Petroleum through dynamic market shifts and industry evolution, Rethorn and his team deliver the insights that help shape the company’s direction and drive its continued growth.

“My team helps provide the market and industry forecasts that impact our business,” said Rethorn. “We do commodity forecasts, energy modeling, supply and demand outlooks and macroeconomic forecasting – not just for the U.S., but around the world.”

With a passion for transparency, collaboration and continuous learning, Rethorn exemplifies the leadership and expertise that make Marathon Petroleum a destination for top talent and a trusted partner in the energy sector.

Curiosity and Impact

Originally a history major, Rethorn was inspired to switch to economics after a single lecture on wetland preservation.

“I was fascinated by how the tools of economics were used to explain environmental preservation and how people are willing to pay for that,” said Rethorn. “The very next day, I went to the chair and switched my major without ever having taken an economics class before.”

After earning both undergraduate and graduate degrees at the University of Toledo, Rethorn served as an adjunct professor, then moved to South Korea for a year with his future wife where they both taught English. Returning to the U.S., he joined Marathon Petroleum in 2011 as a contractor, moving into Economics full-time in 2013. By 2020, he was tapped to lead the Economics team, helping guide the company through periods of transformation and growth.

Driving Business Success Through Strategic Forecasting

At Marathon Petroleum, success is built on anticipating change and making informed decisions. Rethorn’s team is central to this mission.

“Each month, we put out a short-term price forecast that looks out generally 18 to 24 months in the future,” said Rethorn. “That covers more than 200 different commodities, and it covers full state-by-state forecasts for gasoline and diesel and jet fuel consumption. We do natural gas and crude oil forecasting, electricity modeling, biofuels, agricultural prices – a lot goes into that.”

Annually, the team delivers long-term outlooks that help set the stage for the company’s business planning through 2040.

“Almost all of the long-term outlook, at least the base case, that we rely on inside the company either starts with or is tied to work that the economics team does,” said Rethorn. “We do almost all of our forecasts in-house. We have thousands of models that we run every month. What gives us a competitive edge is our ability to be very transparent about the assumptions behind our forecasts.”

Humility, Collaboration and Service

But success isn’t just about numbers – it’s about people. Rethorn’s leadership style is rooted in humility, curiosity and commitment to service.

“I strongly encourage humility. As a team responsible for putting out forecasts, epistemic humility is really important,” said Rethorn. “We do not know the answers, but we’re helping to provide data and analysis that can frame up scenarios and help us make better decisions.”

He believes in being forthcoming when answers aren’t immediately clear.

“People are willing to give you a lot of grace if you’re willing to say up front, ‘I don’t know, but I’ll get back to you.’”

Lead Economist Matthew Muntifering shared that the team benefits from frequent and open communication that allows them to share findings and discuss ideas.

“Nate is servant-leader who genuinely wants to see the individuals on his team succeed,” said Muntifering. “He’s a great organizer and has a very strong knowledge about refining and economics. He’s comfortable delegating technical work and being hands-off enough to allow processes to be built but always open to us bouncing ideas around and getting feedback.”

Trusted Partner

In Marathon Petroleum’s Investor Relations (IR) function, the team regularly engages investors and sell‑side analysts – either fielding questions directly or preparing leaders for earnings calls, investor conferences and one-on-one meetings. In these settings, perspectives on rapidly changing macro dynamics are essential.

According to Brian Worthington, Investor Relations Senior Director for Marathon Petroleum and MPLX, Rethorn is a critical partner. His broad knowledge across the macro-economic landscape allows him to distill a wide range of factors into salient themes. He equips the team with crisp, relevant insights and ensures management is prepared to address what matters most to the investment community. Worthington emphasizes that Rethorn’s credibility and authenticity come through in how he presents information, and that he champions rigorous analysis while being intellectually honest about uncertainty.

“Nate is a great business partner. He takes complex ideas and turns them into narratives that are easy to understand and resonate with stakeholders outside the company,” said Worthington. “He has a talent for weaving global macro trends and refining industry dynamics into clear, useful insights. Nate understands the nature of these markets and the importance of timely, informed responses to market questions, as well as helping with comparative analysis of peer dynamics.”

Worthington also highlights Rethorn’s responsiveness and practical support under tight timelines, noting that IR often has limited time to prepare for engagements and that Rethorn consistently provides concise, actionable answers when they’re needed most.

Leading through Change

The COVID-19 pandemic tested every organization’s ability to adapt. Rethorn’s team responded with agility and innovation, building epidemiological models to predict shutdowns and adapting rapidly to remote work and shifting market conditions.

“It was the most personally and professionally stressful time in my career,” said Rethorn. “The amount of uncertainty we were tasked with trying to forecast – not just a week out, but months – was enormous,” he recalls.

Their work helped Marathon Petroleum make critical decisions and remain resilient during unprecedented times.

Beyond the Office

Outside of work, Rethorn coaches his son’s soccer team. He and his family also enjoy traveling all over the world.

Rethorn serves on the Ohio Governor’s Economic Council, advising on budget planning and economic risks for the state. He travels extensively for internal and external meetings, energy conferences and presentations, often representing Marathon Petroleum as the internal expert.

“I love public speaking. Communication is critical, particularly for my role as chief economist,” said Rethorn.